A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
