Peace Proposals Ready for Delivered to Moscow In the Coming Days, States Zelenskyy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.