War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid War

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".